Bitcoin’s trajectory for the remainder of 2024 has sparked intense debate, with differing predictions from two influential reports. Both Standard Chartered and Bernstein foresee significant price shifts, contingent on the outcome of the U.S. election in November. While the election plays a major role, each report offers distinct perspectives on how the political landscape might affect Bitcoin.
Standard Chartered: $125K or $75K?
Standard Chartered’s forecast centers on Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs regardless of who wins the presidency. However, the magnitude of the rise varies based on the victor. If Donald Trump wins, they predict Bitcoin could surge to $125,000, while a Kamala Harris victory would likely result in a more modest rise to $75,000. According to the bank’s analysis, Trump’s pro-crypto stance, along with his vision of making the U.S. a leader in Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, would fuel the higher valuation.
Standard Chartered emphasizes that even under a Harris administration, positive regulatory changes, such as the repeal of SAB 121 (stringent accounting rules for banks’ digital asset holdings), would continue to drive growth, albeit at a slower pace. This suggests that while regulatory hurdles will be addressed, the market may initially react negatively to a Harris win before eventually recovering. The re-steepening of the U.S. Treasury curve is also cited as a key driver of Bitcoin’s potential surge.
Bernstein’s Outlook: More Volatility
Bernstein, on the other hand, presents a more volatile scenario for Bitcoin. If Trump wins, their forecast is slightly more conservative than Standard Chartered’s, predicting a rise to $90,000. However, Bernstein warns that a Harris presidency could see Bitcoin drop as low as $30,000. The report points out that Trump has actively supported the idea of the U.S. becoming a “crypto capital” and has proposed measures such as creating a national strategic Bitcoin stockpile, which could trigger bullish sentiment in the market.
In contrast, Harris has shown little engagement with cryptocurrency during her campaign, leading Bernstein to predict a potential sharp sell-off if she wins. According to Bernstein, investors would likely react negatively due to the perceived lack of strong crypto advocacy under Harris, at least initially.
Similarities and Differences in Predictions
Both reports agree on one crucial point: the outcome of the U.S. election will significantly influence Bitcoin’s price trajectory. They also highlight regulatory reform as a key catalyst for future growth. However, the magnitude and direction of Bitcoin’s price movement differ significantly between the two reports.
- Standard Chartered presents a scenario where Bitcoin is set to rise regardless of the election result, though Trump’s presidency would provide a greater boost. Their focus is on long-term regulatory progress, suggesting that positive catalysts will dominate the market, regardless of the initial post-election reaction.
- Bernstein, however, paints a more dramatic picture, particularly if Harris wins. They argue that a Harris victory could trigger a sharp initial sell-off, driving Bitcoin down to $30,000. This reflects a more cautious stance on how the political environment, particularly one that is less crypto-friendly, could shape short-term market sentiment.
Conclusion: What Lies Ahead for Bitcoin?
Both Standard Chartered and Bernstein offer compelling arguments for Bitcoin’s future, underscoring the critical role of the upcoming U.S. election. While both foresee a rally if Trump wins, the disparity in predictions regarding a Harris presidency is stark. Standard Chartered remains optimistic, suggesting any downturn will be short-lived as regulatory reform continues. Meanwhile, Bernstein warns of a potentially more severe downturn under Harris, with market sentiment taking a hit before any recovery.
As the election draws near, investors will be closely monitoring these predictions and the broader crypto market, balancing the prospects of regulatory shifts, political influence, and market dynamics in shaping Bitcoin’s future.
